Estimation Iteration

Estimation Iteration

In an episode of ST TNG, Scotty comes back as a guest star and ends up working with Geordi on, well, you know, transferring the warp drive hoo-ha to the shields, or some jibberish the writers pulled out of their butts. At one point Scotty is aghast to learn that Geordi always tells Picard exactly how long it will really take him to accomplish things. He insinuates that Geordi still has a lot to learn.

When I first saw the episode I thought the joke explained a lot about Scotty. The second time I saw this particular clip was while bartending for a crowd of engineers. They roared with laughter. I understood that perhaps there was a broader truth here.

Then one day I became a sysadmin and merrily told people how long it would take me to accomplish their various requests. Oops. After a few years I’ve gotten pretty good at giving what sounds like a reasonable estimate that in fact gives me tons of leeway.

On the flip side, users will gladly pretend they have a deadline and guiltlessly make you run in circles for no good reason. “If I could have that in ten minutes it would be fantastic,” runs the typical plea. You drop everything and produce whatever it is they need. They thank you. Two weeks later you find out they haven’t even used it yet. That’s when you know you’re on the receiving end of repairman culture.

Pretty soon, if you start thinking about it, you realize that all sorts of people have been giving you bogus estimates of just about everything in your life, not just how long it will take to get something done. Look at how “Heckuva job!” turned out. In fact, you realize you have been giving yourself bogus estimates. This haircut can work for a few more weeks. These running shoes match everything I own. I’m pretty good at making spaghetti. What’s that about?


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